There’s an old saying when it comes to knowing how many running backs you need for fantasy football. All of them.
In order to win your fantasy football league, you need at least 2 of the top 10 ranked RB’s, and need to draft at least 6 RB's.
According to statmetrics, 75% of fantasy football league champions had 2 of the top 10 ranked RB’s to finish the season, and 60% had 4 of the top 20 RB’s.
Knowing this, we recommend using 3 of your first 5 picks on RB’s, and then pick up at least 3 other RB’s before the draft is over. Your early round picks should be starters with high a ceiling and high floor (i.e. Gurley in Round 1, Joe Mixon in Round 2, Derrick Henry in Round 3). You can then pick up some high floor guys in later rounds (James White, Matt Breida, Rex Burkhead), and finish the draft with some high upside guys (D'Onta Foreman, Gus Edwards or Kalen Ballage).
You might be thinking, “you’ve got to be kidding me, I need to draft 6 RB’s?!”.
The short answer is Yes.
For a longer, more data-driven answer, continue reading.
Injury Risk of RB's
For starters, the running back position has an extremely high risk of injury, more so than any other position in fantasy. Keep in mind, 41 Running Backs went on the IR in 2018, including Pro Bowler Phillip Lindsay, first round pick NFL draft pick Derrius Guice, Aaron Jones, Jay Ajai, Devona Freeman, Jerick McKinnon, Marshawn Lynch, and many others. All of these guys were either on-track or projected to have a strong year from a fantasy perspective.
Given the high rate of injury at the running back position, there is a fantasy draft strategy to avoid them altogether. This is known as the Zero RB Strategy. Let us set the record straight… The Zero RB draft strategy is flat out dumb! It’s far more risky to go Zero RB than it is to draft a bunch of studs with your first 3 picks. Why would you avoid a position that has more scarcity and more value than any other position?!
We’ll say this again and again… How many running backs do you need in your fantasy football draft? The answer is 6.
Drafting Running Back is all About Value
The second reason to draft 6 running backs is that the drop off between the 10th ranked RB and the 30th ranked RB is far more significant than other positions. You are better off taking more RB’s early on, and then some late round flyers on WR than the other way around.
Scenario 1: Take the following two teams as an example:
Team 1: 3rd Ranked RB, 7th Ranked RB + 2nd Ranked WR, 30th Ranked WR
Team 2: 3rd Ranked WR, 7th Ranked WR + 2nd Ranked RB, 30th Ranked RB
Which team, based on 2018 season-long scoring, do you think would score more points?
Team 1 scored a total of 838 Points, vs only 815 Points for Team 2.
Actual Team 1:
3rd Ranked RB - 278 Pts (Christian McCaffrey)
7th Ranked RB - 225 Pts (James Connor)
2nd Ranked WR - 219 Pts (Antonio Brown)
30th Ranked WR - 116 Pts (Mohammad Sanu)
Actual Team 2:
3rd Ranked WR - 218 Pts (Davante Adams)
7th Ranked WR - 184 Pts (Adam Thielen)
2nd Ranked RB - 295 Pts Pts (Saquan Barkley)
30th Ranked RB - 118 Pts Pts (T.J Yeldon)
We’ll say this again and again… How many running backs do you need to draft in your fantasy football draft? Say it with me people. The answer is 6.
Scenario 2: Take the following two teams as an example:
Here’s another example of why it’s better to have a couple of the top-ranked RB’s and wait on WR’s, than the other way around.
Team 1: 1st Ranked RB, 4th Ranked RB + 10th Ranked WR, 40th Ranked WR
Team 2: 1st Ranked WR, 4th Ranked WR + 10th Ranked RB, 40th Ranked RB
Which team, based on 2018 season-long scoring, do you think would score more points?
Team 1 scored a total of 885 Points, vs only 748 Points for Team 2.
Actual Team 1: 885 Points
1st Ranked RB - 331 (Todd Gurley)
4th Ranked RB - 273 (Alvin Kamara)
10th Ranked WR - 180 (Robert Woods)
40th Ranked WR - 101 (Nelson Agholor)
Actual Team 2: 748 Points
1st Ranked WR - 241 (Tyreke Hill)
4th Ranked WR - 218 (DeAndre Hopkins)
10th Ranked RB - 196 (David Johnson)
40th Ranked RB - 93 (Lesean Mccoy)
You Need to Draft 6 Running Backs. End of Story.
Given the injury risk of the role, the lack of production at the RB position after the top 10, we recommend spending 3 of your first 4 draft picks (standard snake) on running backs, and then pick up a few high ceiling/handcuff guys later. If you go the Auction route, we suggest using at least 65% of your budget on 6 running backs.
